Shigeru Ishiba is set to become the next Prime Minister of Japan after winning the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which has ruled the country for the past seven decades. A special session of Parliament will officially vote him into power.
Here are 5 things you need to know about Ishiba, his views, and the current political context in which he takes over.
- 01
Most ‘unpredictable’ LDP election
After Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his resignation in August, there was a scramble within the LDP to find a new leader. With the party’s stock at an all time low following a series of corruption scandals and Japan’s faltering economic fortunes, a record nine candidates put their hat in the ring to lead the conservative party that has had a virtual monopoly over power in Japan for decades.
This set up what many observers called the most “unpredictable” LDP election of all time. Ishiba defeated Sanae Takaichi, 63, in a run-off on Friday after no candidate secured a majority in the first round, held earlier in the day. Takaichi was vying to be Japan’s first woman premier.
Notably, these were the results of an internal party vote, rather than a public one. Round one saw 736 party members voting, while the runoff saw 415 cast their ballot. Ishiba won 215 votes to Takaichi’s 194 in the run-off. Although general elections are still more than a year away, experts say that Ishiba may call for snap polls to secure his mandate with the public.
- 02
Battle for ‘soul’ of party
This was Ishiba’s fifth attempt, and according to him, “final” attempt to secure the LDP’s leadership. Despite his popularity with the public, the veteran leader previously failed to rise to the helm of the LDP in no small part due to his contrarian positions and frequent spats with other leaders, including former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the incumbent Kishida. Notably, Ishiba was one of the loudest voices calling for Kishda’s resignation.
Tobias Harris, the founder of the Japan Foresight political risk advisory firm, described the race to The Guardian as “a battle for the soul of the LDP, pitting Takaichi, Abe’s intellectual successor on economic and foreign policy, against Ishiba, an idealistic reformer who fundamentally rejects not just Abenomics but much of his foreign policy thinking and his approach to politics”.
Compared to the moderate Ishiba, Takaichi is far more conservative on many issues. For instance, Ishiba is in favor of allowing female emperors — an extremely radical position in Japan, especially for an LDP leader. Takaichi’, on the other hand, opposes legislation allowing women to retain their maiden name as well as allowing female emperors.
- 03
Savior for party in crisis?
Experts say that many senior leaders likely put aside their differences with Ishiba to harness his public appeal. They have “gravitated towards a popular figure who does well in media appearances and isn’t afraid to criticize his own party when he thinks they’re in the wrong,” Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, told Reuters.
What previously held Ishiba back politically, has thus ended up being his trump card with his party in flux. “The public is changing,” Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Kyoto’s Ritsumeikan University who has worked closely with both Abe and Kishida, told the BBC. “It’s time for the conservative politics in this country to adapt to a new political environment and political battlefield,” he said.
“We must believe in the people, speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and work together to make Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can live with a smile once again,” a visibly emotional Ishiba said in a speech to LDP lawmakers after winning his party’s confidence.
- 04
Proponent of an assertive Japan
Ishiba, by all accounts, is a defense expert. Naturally, the former defense minister’s campaign focused heavily on security issues. Ishiba has said that he will push for greater oversight over US military bases in Japan, as well as a stronger say in US military policy vis-à-vis Japan and East Asia. He has called for the creation of what experts call an “Asian NATO”.
This makes Ishiba likely to continue with Japan’s trajectory towards becoming a more assertive player in the international stage, allied to but less reliant on Washington. Some experts say that his positions might complicate Japan’s relations with its closest ally. However, as Japan faces a number of regional threats, from an increasingly assertive China and its deepening defense ties with Russia, to North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities, Ishiba cannot afford to alienate Washington.
Interestingly, Ishiba’s affinity towards defense and military affairs extends to his personal life. Among his many hobbies are plastic models of ships and military aircraft, some of which he displays on the bookshelves that line his parliamentary office in Tokyo.
- 05
Economic challenges, Ishiba’s solutions
Corruption scandals aside, the country’s stagnating economic fortunes have been at the heart of LDP’s deteriorating standing. Japan’s behemoth of an economy has been stagnating for decades, and people are finally feeling the pinch. “They’re frustrated with the inflation that they are facing currently and the so-called ‘lost 30 years’. The Japanese currency is low, lots of imports have gotten with inflation, and many people see it,” Mieko Nakabayashi, a political science professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University, told the expensive BBC.
Ishiba has said he supports a departure from decades of monetary easing by Japan’s Central Bank which has left the yen’s value in the pits. His victory has already seen the yen’s value jump by more than 1%, Nikkei Asia reported. His support for higher capital gains taxes, however, have led to the Japanese stock markets reacting poorly to his victory.
Ishiba has also spoken about Japan’s aging population and rural depopulation, which puts pressure on the workforce. Some believe that he might usher in change with regards to how Japan operates its labor market, and the country’s attitude towards migration.
Share this content: