We’re headed into Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 9 winners

Is Dorance Armstrong primed for a huge game against the Giants?

After the Giants lost Andrew Thomas for the season to a Lisfranc injury, they first turned to Joshua Ezeudu. Then they signed Chris Hubbard off the 49ers’ practice squad and started him against the Steelers. It did not go great.

Hubbard put up an abysmal 63% pass block win rate (average is 88% for a tackle) against T.J. Watt and the rest of the Steelers’ edge rushers. To be fair, he is an experienced player with an 88% career PBWR, but there’s a reason he was available for the Giants to pick up.

This should be great news for Armstrong. The Commanders’ pass rusher is having a sneaky nice season despite only three sacks. He has a 24% pass rush win rate at edge, which would rank sixth at the position if he had played enough to qualify.

Can the Commanders slow Malik Nabers?

Let’s stick with the same game since Nabers has ascended to an elite tier of receiver. The rookie has the highest possible open score at 99, per ESPN’s receiver scores. No other receiver is even in the 90s.

Of course, he’s playing with Daniel Jones on the anemic Giants offense. But Nabers’ ability to get open and draw targets is impressive for anyone, let alone a rookie. That will be particularly worrying for Washington when it has Benjamin St-Juste on Nabers. St-Juste has given up 1.9 yards per coverage snap, which is seventh highest among all outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Commanders will be better off when fellow rookie Mike Sainristil, who’s allowing 1.3 yards per coverage snap, is on Nabers.

Will the Falcons have success using motion against Dallas?

The Falcons, under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, use motion at the snap at the third-highest clip in the league (41%). This is common for any coach from the Sean McVay tree, and it’s effective, too. In passing situations, Atlanta’s average play with motion at the snap accrues 0.17 more EPA than its average nonmotion at the snap plays.

This isn’t ideal for Dallas, which has surrendered the most EPA per play versus motion at the snap in the NFL. It’s also perhaps ironic that the tool which gives the Cowboys’ defense the most fits is rarely used by their offense. They put a man in motion at the snap just 14% of the time (fourth-lowest rate).

Can the Bengals stop Maxx Crosby from getting to Joe Burrow?

We’ve got another mismatch in the trenches, and this one is a doozy. Crosby usually lines up opposite the right tackle, so he will face rookie Amarius Mims on Sunday. Mims has an 82% pass block win rate, which ranks 62nd out of 67 qualifiers. That’s in complete contrast to Orlando Brown Jr., who ranks first on the other side of the line.

In addition to being a major pass-rush threat, Crosby is also a strong run defender. He ranks second in run stop win rate at edge, while Mims ranks 59th in run block win rate. This is a mismatch all around.

Will the addition of Diontae Johnson help the Ravens vs. the Broncos?

Pat Surtain II has been pretty exceptional this season, allowing just 0.6 yards per coverage snap and minus-17 EPA as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But there’s only one of him.

With Johnson in the fold, the Ravens figure to use more three-receiver sets. Zay Flowers will occupy the slot against Ja’Quan McMillian, who has been solid with an above-average 1.1 yards per coverage snap and negative-22 EPA allowed. That will leave room for either Johnson or Rashod Bateman to have success against Riley Moss, who has been targeted a league-high 59 times this season.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (43.9% rostered)

Jameis Winston threw for over 300 yards in Week 8 against the Ravens, and Tillman has benefited significantly from the Browns’ new starter. He has seen nine or more targets in each of the past two games, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in both.

His matchup against the Chargers isn’t ideal, but Tillman’s consistent target share makes him a valuable fantasy player. Expect him to continue to be a focal point of the Browns’ passing game.

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (30.7% rostered)

With Diontae Johnson traded to the Ravens, Legette is stepping up as the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver. He has averaged 13.5 fantasy points in the three outings he’s had with seven or more targets. This week, he faces a Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Even with Bryce Young throwing him the ball, Legette can be started in deeper formats.

Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints (21.3% rostered)

Hill’s unique role in the Saints’ offense can make him a tough call for fantasy lineups. He scores as a passer, runner and receiver. With quarterback Derek Carr expected to return against Carolina, Hill should still see plenty of action. The matchup is intriguing as the Saints are the only defense that gives up more yards per game to opponents than the Panthers.

Joe Flacco, QB, Indianapolis Colts (6.2% rostered)

In all the games Flacco has started since 2023, he has led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns per game. Anthony Richardson has ranked near the bottom.

Flacco now faces a Vikings defense that allows the third-most passing yards per game (263.0). With targets like Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Alec Pierce, he’s set up for a strong performance. For those in superflex or deeper formats, Flacco is a solid QB2 with plenty of upside.

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (2.8% rostered)

Washington could be the Jaguars’ new No. 1 receiver with Christian Kirk out for the season with a broken collarbone and Brian Thomas Jr. potentially sidelined with a chest injury. While tight end Evan Engram is likely to see plenty of targets, it’s worth noting the Eagles give up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Jaguars might also find themselves playing from behind, which could create more opportunities for Washington to shine.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

A.J. Brown posts over 100 receiving yards vs. the Jaguars

Brown has topped the 100-yard mark in two of his four games this season, and he’s averaging 19.4 yards per catch. That works against a Jaguars’ defense that’s allowing the second-most passing yards per game (271.1). I see Brown getting going early in this one on a deep ball from Jalen Hurts.

Jessie Bates III intercepts Dak Prescott

I’m all in on Bates as a post defender in Atlanta’s system with his strong range, instincts and ball skills. He has two interceptions this season, and I see him getting a third against the Cowboys this Sunday. Prescott has thrown eight picks, tied for fourth-most in the NFL.

DeAndre Hopkins catches his first touchdown with the Chiefs

Hopkins was fairly quiet in his first game with Kansas City, catching two of three targets for 29 yards in a win over the Raiders. However, with a matchup against the Bucs on Monday night, I think Hopkins finds the end zone.

Tampa Bay has allowed nine red zone passing touchdowns, which is tied for seventh-most in the league. Andy Reid is one of the best at drawing up concepts inside the 20-yard line, so look for him to utilize his newest receiver there.

Derwin James Jr. sacks Jameis Winston

Winston was sacked twice in a 29-24 win over the Ravens, and we know he will look to extend plays when protection breaks down. James has only one sack on the season, but he has logged six pressures. Watch for him to potentially get home on a blitz stunt to sack Winston on Sunday.

Bo Nix runs for a touchdown vs. the Ravens

Nix has recorded five or more rushing attempts in six straight games, and he has run for a touchdown in two of his past four. Against a Ravens defense that will change the coverage picture post-snap, look for Nix to take off frequently as a runner. And I expect him to scramble for touchdown on a red zone carry.

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 9

Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

If not for a Hail Mary disasterclass, the Bears would be on a four-game winning streak. As it is, they still have not surrendered over 21 points in their past 13 games, and they get a Cardinals team that has been an explosive but inconsistent offense through the first eight weeks.

More importantly, Arizona’s pass defense is dead last in success rate and third-worst in EPA. And we’ve seen the Bears beat up on bad pass defenses (Panthers, Rams, Jaguars) in recent weeks as rookie quarterback Caleb Williams gets better acclimated. I like the Bears, who cannot afford to lose any more ground in the competitive NFC North, to deliver a statement performance and stay in the thick of the playoff race.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

Joe Flacco rises from quarterback purgatory yet again. The Super Bowl XLVII winner keeps producing in relief duty, and now he gets an extended look as the Colts’ new starter. Despite a successful stint in Cleveland last season, he knew early in the offseason the Browns weren’t re-signing him. The Colts were the only team to heavily pursue him in March. He felt inspired coming off the Cleveland experience and kept himself in top shape with the hopes of getting a call that could turn into a job. He has never been intimidated by the big stage, and now he has another one, with 4-4 Indy eyeing a path to a potential AFC South crown.

As for second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, I get the same answer when I ask people in the know about the benching — that it wasn’t just one thing. The tap-out play against the Texans in Week 8 was not a deciding factor, though it couldn’t have helped his cause. Talking to opposing coaches who have played the Colts, they agree Richardson had trouble seeing the field and mastering the position, forcing Indy into a near-inevitable call. He has completed just 44.4% of his passes this season. Still, Richardson is an immense talent, and the Colts’ sentiment that this isn’t the end for him in Indy does feel genuine.

The Titans are hopeful running back Tony Pollard (foot) can play Sunday vs. New England despite not practicing this week. But even if he does, backup Julius Chestnut will get an extended look. Chestnut has played 26 offensive snaps all season but will see that increase with Pollard banged up and Tyjae Spears (hamstring) out. While it’s unclear exactly how much Chestnut will play, the former undrafted free agent out of Sacred Heart might be a worthwhile fantasy stash option.

I sense some optimism about Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (head) getting cleared from concussion protocol in time for Sunday. He’s hopeful to play, and he practiced in a limited capacity all week. But, the five steps of the protocol are clear-cut, and if he doesn’t pass, then it’s Jacoby Brissett time yet again.

The Panthers will have an interesting call at quarterback after this week. Will they stick with Bryce Young or go back to Andy Dalton? I’ve talked to some with the team who believe Dalton will get another chance once his thumb is completely healed, while opposing teams feel Carolina should stick with Young, having nothing to lose while sitting at 1-7. Young completed 24 of 37 passes for 224 yards with two touchdowns and two picks against the Saints in Week 8, which was his first extended action since he was benched after two games.

This weekend’s results could determine trade activity entering Tuesday’s deadline. A few musings:

• The Patriots have been looking for offensive line help. They looked into Cam Robinson before the Jaguars traded him to the Vikings, and they’ve also been in touch with free agent offensive tackle D.J. Humphries. At receiver, K.J. Osborn is the Patriots player I’m watching most closely at the deadline.

• The Chargers are what I would consider “window shopping” — they like where they sit but will consider options to get better over the next few days.

• Giants pass rusher Azeez Ojulari‘s name has heated up in recent days. Teams that had him as a fringe option now believe he could get moved by Tuesday, especially if contenders in need of rush help don’t want to meet the Browns’ asking price for a Za’Darius Smith trade. Ojulari is in a contract year, is playing well (six sacks) and is probably the odd man out once Kayvon Thibodeaux returns. One interesting connection: Arizona. The Cardinals could be 5-4 coming out of the weekend, have a major need at edge rusher and Ojulari’s brother, BJ, is a Cardinal, though BJ is out for the season.

• Speaking of the Giants, offensive lineman Evan Neal is a nonstarter in trade talks from what I’ve been told, despite the 2022 No. 7 pick not playing any offensive snaps this season. Never say never with trades, but the Giants have no plans to move him, and he could see the field sooner than later.

• If Bills corner Christian Benford (wrist, questionable) doesn’t play this week, that could open a chance for former first-round pick Kaiir Elam. He’s out of the Bills’ rotation, so if he sees a relief role and plays well, perhaps that elicits new inquiries from teams.

• There aren’t many options for the Texans to improve their interior offensive line, but Chicago has made guard Nate Davis available and is willing to eat a chunk of his roughly $5 million in remaining guaranteed salary for the year.

• The Jets are now in an interesting spot with wideout Mike Williams because of Thursday night’s win and the injury to Allen Lazard, who was just put on injured reserve (chest). Will they stick with Williams as the third receiver or turn to someone else, such as Jason Brownlee? The people I’ve talked to believe there’s a chance he stays, which didn’t seem likely a few weeks back. Pittsburgh looms large here. The Steelers want receiver help. Whether they get it from New York or elsewhere could help determine Williams’ fate.