TOKYO — Japanese voters on Sunday will either give new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba his desired mandate to govern the nation or deny him as they go to the polls to elect members of the House of Representatives.
Ishiba dissolved the chamber for a snap election shortly after he was elected as prime minister on Oct. 1succeeding the embattled Fumio Kishida.
The House of Representatives, Japan’s lower house, is more powerful than the House of Councilors, the upper house, in designing prime ministers, making this election a crucial opportunity for voters to have a say in the direction of their government.
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Here are some key issues and post-election prospects.
Reforming the country’s politics in response to a funding scandal
Kishida announced in August that he would step down as Liberal Democratic Party president rather than seek reelection the following month, thus taking responsibility for a scandal involving dubious political funds of party factions.
Ishiba then won an LDP leadership racewhich set him up to become prime minister. Since taking on the roles, Ishiba has pledged to restore public trust in the scandal-tainted party by ensuring its commitment to “compliance with rules.”
Political reform has become a significant campaign issue, with most parties promising policies to increase the transparency of political funding.
Candidates are also pledging measures to deal with high prices, weak consumer demand, impediments to economic growth and population decline.
Foreign policy and national security issues are also critical debate topics, with discussions focused on enhancing the nation’s defense capabilities as the militaries of China, Russia and North Korea assume more aggressive postures.
Scenario 1: Ruling coalition secures a majority, cutting Ishiba some slack
Whether the current ruling coalition of the LDP and its junior partner, Komeito, can maintain a majority is the primary focus of the election. Ishiba has set the “threshold of victory” at the coalition winning 233 seats, a bare majority of the 465- seat lower house.
If the alliance secures a majority, Ishiba will be considered to have won the public’s confidence, giving his administration a new lease on life.
Ishiba is hoping that a series of actions he will take on the domestic and diplomatic fronts in the coming months will help boost the cabinet’s approval ratings.
The prime minister will compile a supplementary budget to fund measures to deal with the aftermath of the Noto Peninsula earthquake and flooding, and formulate the fiscal 2025 budget by year-end. He will handle key diplomatic events such as this year’s summits of the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and the Group of 20, made up of industrialized and emerging-market nations.
However, the 233-seat goal is modest — the LDP and Komeito held a combined 279 seats before the election — and merely reaching this target could leave Ishiba facing plenty of tough internal challenges to his political agenda.
The LDP has maintained a lower house majority on its own since regaining power in 2012 but is now in jeopardy of losing it, according to the results of a Nikkei opinion poll conducted Oct. 15 to Oct. 16.
Many political pundits say that even if the LDP fails to secure a lower house majority on its own, it will not seriously affect government operations due to the coalition with Komeito.
Ishiba will have a reasonable alibi should the LDP lose its lower house: The political funding issue is his predecessors’ “negative legacy,” and Ishiba has decided not to endorse the candidacies of some LDP legislators involved in the scandal.
If this scenario unfolds, Komeito’s political clout in both houses will increase, making it difficult for the LDP to pursue conservative policy initiatives such as amending the constitution. The LDP already lacks a majority in the upper house and relies on Komeito’s support for control of the chamber.
It is also inevitable that many LDP members of the upper house will feel anxious about facing voters next summer under Ishiba’s leadership. With this anxiety simmering, some LDP legislators could call for a new leader they feel is more capable of marshaling the party to an electoral vote victory.
Scenario 2: Ruling coalition loses majority, triggering new coalition talks
If voters sharply reduce the LDP’s seats, the ruling coalition could lose its majority and fall below Ishiba’s “threshold of victory.” Ishiba has not explicitly stated whether he would resign if the coalition loses its majority.
On the other hand, if the LDP maintains its largest party status, the coalition will have levers it can pull to remain in power. The party could endorse winning candidates who failed to gain the LDP’s preelection approval due to the funding scandal. Cooperating with conservative independents would be another option.
Another possibility is that the LDP and Komeito invite opposition parties with relatively conservative platforms to join their alliance. Potential new partners include the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People.
However, the view consensus is that “in case the ruling coalition loses a majority, or the threshold of victory set by Ishiba, it is unlikely the prime minister will remain in office,” according to an LDP member.
This raises the question: Can the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), form a government?
Since it was formed in 1955, the LDP has been out of power only for two short stints. The last time this happened came in 2009, when voters handed the reins of government to the then-Democratic Party of Japan.
The current opposition, however, is deeply fragmented, with both liberal and conservative parties, making it unlikely they can unite to form a “non-LDP/Komeito” coalition government.
The worst-case scenario for the LDP would be the main opposition CDP winning the most seats. A regime change would then be inescapable, Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation would be unavoidable and another LDP leadership election would be inevitable.
In this case, and unless it were to secure a majority on its own, the CDP would need to cooperate with other parties to form a government. This would likely trigger a power struggle between the CDP and the LDP-Komeito camp, leading to political turmoil.
Election results to come out by early Monday morning
A total of 1,344 candidates are running in the lower house election, official campaigning for which began on Oct. 15. All of the house’s 465 seats are being contested — 289 in single-member districts and 176 through a proportional representation system that divides the country into 11 constituencies.
Polling stations are typically set up at public schools, allowing Japanese nationals 18 and older to cast one vote for a single-district candidate and another for a specific party itself.
Voting ends at 8 pm on Sunday, and results will start coming in later that night and continue into the early morning.