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TOKYO — The ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition lost its lower house majority in Sunday’s general election amid voter dissatisfaction over a fundraising scandal. The results cast uncertainty over the fate of new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Read our main stories. For more coverage of Japan’s election, go here.
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Here’s how it happened (Japan time):
Monday, Oct. 28
2:34 p.m. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba indicated on Monday that he intends to stay on as Japan’s leader after his Liberal Democratic Party and ruling coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time since 2009 in a general election the day before.
11:49 a.m. The Japanese yen weakened to the upper-153 level on Monday after the ruling coalition lost its majority in Sunday’s general election, casting uncertainties over the country’s fiscal and monetary policies.
7:31 a.m. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba now faces an uncertain political future as the coalition led by his Liberal Democratic Party lost its lower house majority in Sunday’s general election.
5:12 a.m. The opposition camp has secured 235 seats against the ruling coalition’s 215, according to Nikkei’s count of confirmed seats. The leading opposition Constitutional Democratic Party won 148 seats, up from 98 before the election. The LDP won 191 seats, down from 247, and Komeito won 24.
2:40 a.m. The conservative Nippon Ishin no Kai, or Japan Innovation Party, failed to gain traction outside its home turf of Osaka. The party is expected to undershoot the 43 seats it held before the election.
“Our efforts were lacking,” representative Nobuyuki Baba said. “We have not been able to achieve what the public expected of us,” he said.
2 a.m. Political upstarts have gained ground. The progressive Reiwa Shinsengumi party, led by Taro Yamamoto, and the right-leaning Sanseito party are projected to increase their seats.
1:30 a.m. The leader of coalition partner Komeito lost his seat in Saitama prefecture. Keiichi Ishii, who was chosen as the party’s new leader in September, was defeated by a candidate fielded by the opposition Democratic Party for the People.
12:35 a.m. The main opposition CDP is projected to increase the number of seats in the lower house compared to before the election — it has secured at least 113, up from the previous 98.The Democratic Party for the People will likely more than double its seats to 13, versus seven previously.
Sunday, Oct. 27
11:52 p.m. The opposition has now overtaken the ruling bloc in Nikkei’s count of confirmed seats. The opposition is on 139 versus the coalition’s 134, with 181 seats remaining. The threshold for a majority is 233.
11:35 p.m. Sanae Takaichi, who narrowly lost to Shigeru Ishiba in the LDP’s leadership election, said that given the party’s situation, she hoped executives will “thoroughly rebuild the party.”
She spoke to reporters at her campaign office in Nara Prefecture, where she is projected to have secured a win. “My feeling about wanting to run the nation someday is unchanged,” said the former minister in charge of economic security. She denied the possibility of forming a new party.
11:23 p.m. Nikkei estimates voter turnout to be around 53.11%, roughly 2.82 percentage points lower than that of the previous election. In 2021, the turnout rate was 55.93%, the third lowest in the postwar period. Voter turnout is expected to be in the 50% range for the fifth straight time. This time could mark the second-lowest rate for a lower house election in the postwar period.
11:08 p.m. Regarding the election results so far, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda told NHK: “We have made progress since the last election. We hope to push the LDP and Komeito to less than a majority.” Asked about the LDP’s response to lawmakers who failed to report political funds, Noda said, “In addition to the party’s own investigation, we should call” for [these lawmakers] to testify in parliament.”
“If the CDP came to power, Noda said the party would “definitely get [the supplementary budget for the recovery and reconstruction of the quake-hit Noto peninsula] passed within a month.”
10:44 p.m. In a separate interview with NHK, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the election results so far were “very severe. I don’t think we were able to gain the public’s understanding.”
10:28 p.m. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba spoke with broadcaster TV Asahi. Regarding the possibility of cooperation with other parties, he said: “It depends on how much each party wants to realize their policies. We want to secure a majority but we should make decisions based on what kind of policies we want to conduct for the people.”
On [LDP coalition partner] Komeito, which is projected to lose seats, Ishiba admitted the LDP has “burdened and inconvenienced the party with the issue of politics and money.”
“We must be a party that rewards Komeito’s sincere attitude,” he said.
10:27 p.m. Sayuri Otsuka of the CDP is projected to beat LDP heavyweight Akira Amari in win his seat in Kanagawa.
10:07 p.m. Tobias Harris, a political analyst who wrote a biography of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, wrote his initial comments on the results on his blog.
“On perhaps the most important question of all — will the LDP perform poorly enough that Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru must quit sooner rather than later? — we do not know enough yet. It certainly seems, however, that Ishiba will at the very least be changing his LDP leadership team sooner rather than later.”
“One thing we can say before knowing the final results is that the CDP’s bet on Noda Yoshihiko may well have paid off; without a big increase in turnout, the CDP’s ability to appeal to disaffected LDP voters seems critical, and it is difficult to see the CDP doing that as well with one of the other leaders.”
10:05 p.m. Nobuyuki Baba, leader of the Japan Innovation Party — another opposition party — reiterated that he is “not thinking at all” about joining a coalition government with LDP and Komeito if the ruling parties lose their majority. At a press conference in Osaka, he told reporters: “As long as the issue of politics and money is not cleared up, we cannot trust them.”
10:02 a.m. Asked about the decision to give 20 million yen ($131,000) as activity funds to candidates not endorsed by the LDP after slush fund scandal, Hiroshi Moriyama, LDP secretary-general, said. “It was a decision made based on the rules.”
Regarding a scenario where the ruling coalition loses its majority, including the possibility of his resignation from his position, he said, “I will humbly and sincerely accept the results regarding my responsibility.”
9:46 p.m. Asked about the possibility of forming a coalition with other opposition parties, CDP Secretary General Junya Ogawa said “I will consider all possibilities,” while adding he was not willing to say anything definitive in the middle of counting ballots. If the ruling parties fail to keep their majority, “it will be a major turning point in politics,” he said.
9:44 p.m. The Democratic Party for the People is projected to increase the number of seats in the lower house compared to before the election — it has secured at least 10, up from the previous 7. The opposition party formed and led by Yuichiro Tamaki aimed to gain support from the broad middle ground, including the right, left and independents. It has been advocating policies such as increasing the take home pay of workers, and is distinct from the main opposition CDP on topics such as nuclear power and constitutional amendments.
9:39 p.m. The voter turnout rate was 31.52% as of 7:30pm, down 2.80% from the previous election.
9:30 p.m. Nikkei Asia reporters talked with voters at balloting sites on Sunday.
A woman in her 40s in Tokyo’s Koto Ward said she voted for the LDP. “Other parties are just criticizing them, and I don’t know what they want to do.” She believes that the opposition has not provided clear explanations on how to pay for tax cuts or ensure national security. “I think Noda is okay, but not the CDP.”
A man in his 60s who voted in Chiba Prefecture’s Narashino city said he supports CDP leader Noda. Referring to the LDP’s political fund scandal, he said that “the public is angry at [the LDP’s] half-hearted response… I hope a system will be established for how political funds are used.” Regarding the proposal to raise the minimum wage, “I wonder how realistic it is,” he said, pointing out that “small and medium-sized enterprises are not making profits, and I think it would be difficult to raise it uniformly.”
9:14 p.m. Yukio Edano of the CDP, who is projected to win in his district in Saitama, told NHK: “There is no doubt that the LDP is losing a lot of seats. Let’s see how seriously the LDP will accept this.”
9:10 p.m. Hiroshige Seko, a core member of the former Abe faction is projected to win his seat in Wakayama. He ran independently, after leaving the LDP in April to take responsibility for the political fund issue. He was expected to beat Nobuyasu Nikai of the LDP, son of former party secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai, who recently retired from politics.
Below is a chart showing the makeup of the lower house before parliament was dissolved for the election:
9:03 p.m. The leaders of the two biggest parties were both projected to win. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba retained his seat in Tottori District 1, and CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda won his seat in Chiba. On the other hand, Komeito Party leader Keiichi Ishii, who is running in a single-seat constituency in Saitama, is in a tight race with an opposition candidate.
9:02 p.m. The Japan Conservative Party was projected to secure its first ever national seat following the victory of former Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura. The party is led by novelist Naoki Hyakuta, which has been campaigning for reducing consumption tax and local taxes, and lowering the annual allowance for lawmakers.
8:55 p.m. Hakubun Shimomura, of the former Abe faction, was projected to lose in Tokyo District 11 to Yukihiko Akutsu of the CDP. Shimomura ran independently, after being suspended from party membership for a year due to the LDP political fund issue.
8:54 p.m. Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, an opposition party, told reporters at a polling center in Tokyo: “Regardless of the composition of the ruling and opposition parties, we hope to always work with the national interest in mind.”
Tamaki has indicated that he will deal with the ruling party in a fair and just manner. He has not ruled out the possibility of a “partial coalition” in which his party would cooperate with the administration on a policy-by-policy basis. If the ruling party loses its majority, there are some who think that the party will become a complementary force.
8:40 p.m. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to have won in Hiroshima District No.1, and Taro Aso, another former premier, retained his seat in Fukuoka. Ichiro Ozawa, a CDP party heavyweight, is projected to have won his seat in Iwate.
8:33 p.m. Former Olympic Minister Tamayo Marukawa, formerly of the scandal-hit Abe faction, is projected to have lost in Tokyo District No. 7. Marukawa was not allowed to also run in the proportional representative race as she failed to report her political fund income and expenditure. Akihiro Matsuo of the CDP is expected to win the seat.
8:30 p.m. LDP Election Strategy Chief Shinjiro Koizumi commented that the current situation is “extremely severe,” saying in an NHK interview that “it is my responsibility as an election strategy chief… I apologize for my lack of ability.”
“Various factors, including the fact that we have not been able to resolve the issue of the political fund scandal, have led to a harsh judgment of the voters against the LDP,” he said.
8:24 p.m. For readers of Japanese, here’s the main story on the Nikkei website.
8:11 p.m. 50 seats have been confirmed as going to the ruling bloc, with 27 for the opposition. 233 are need for a majority.
8 p.m. Voting closes. The ruling bloc is at risk of losing their lower house majority, Nikkei projected immediately after polls closed based on exit surveys of voters and other factors.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to gain seats in the chamber, as is the Democratic Party for the People, amid public anger at the LDP over a political funds scandal involving dozens of its lawmakers.
7:37 p.m. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba entered LDP headquarters.
7:36 p.m. The voter turnout rate was 29.01% as of 6 p.m., down 2.63 percentage points from the same time in the previous election. About 20.95 million voters, or 20.11% of those eligible, had cast early ballots, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
The lower house election seats are not the only positions being voted on. There is also a national review of Supreme Court judges, under which citizens select judges they would like to see resign. Since this globally rare system was introduced in 1949, no judge has been removed from office.
7:21 p.m. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama and Election Strategy Chief Shinjiro Koizumi have entered the party’s headquarters.
7 p.m. Just an hour to go now.
6:15 p.m. The voter turnout rate was 24.32% as of 4 p.m., down 2.46 percentage points from the same time in the previous election, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. About 20.95 million voters, or 20.11% of those eligible, cast early ballots.
6 p.m. We are now just two hours away from the close of voting. Once the polling stations close, initial exit polls and media projections will provide a picture of how the night might play out. Most results are expected to be confirmed by the early hours of Monday.
While we wait, please take a look at some of our coverage during the campaign:
– Japan’s uncertain lower house election outlook: What’s at stake?
– 5 ways Japan’s elections are unique
– Japan’s ruling LDP faces tightening races in final election stretch
– Japanese politicians’ vow to up minimum wage by 40% raises concerns
And here’s the key line from our story this morning: Predictions by the media hint at a tough battle for the LDP, with Nikkei surveys showing a close race in nearly half of single-seat electoral districts.