Campaigning for the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race officially kicked off Thursday with a record nine candidates, each with their own vision for the country’s economy, security and demographic challenges.
Among the presidential hopefuls — who consist of younger legislators as well as experienced veterans — two candidates have emerged as front-runners: former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.
Despite a general decline in the LDP’s support due to a large-scale political funds scandal, Ishiba and Koizumi have remained surprisingly popular with the public. While they have distanced themselves from the incumbent administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, their recognition among the electorate has stayed high.
A Jiji survey released Thursday indicated that 25.5% picked Koizumi as their top choice for the party’s leadership, followed by Ishiba, at 24.2%. Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi came in a distant third, with 8.5%, and digital minister Taro Kono came in fourth, at 4.9%.
Since he first announced his candidacy last month, Ishiba, 67, has repeatedly said that this will be his last bid for the presidency. He has assembled a team of veterans across all party factions and used every occasion he had to appeal to the public with his policy platform.
“The reason why I said this is going to be my final battle is because you can’t implement any of these policies unless you’re the party president and the prime minister,” Ishiba said Thursday at a kickoff event, after listing his policy priorities.
A political veteran with over 30 years of experience, Ishiba has long been a household name in Japan due to his steady media presence and sound policy expertise.
However, Ishiba’s name recognition hasn’t helped him in his past four attempts — in 2008, 2012, 2018 and 2020. Past elections have shown that, while he garnered many votes from the rank-and-file LDP members, Ishiba constantly struggled to entice his fellow legislators.
This time, candidates will compete for a total of 734 votes — 367 from LDP legislators and another 367 proportionally assigned to rank-and-file members affiliated to local chapters.
Given that all nine candidates had to collect 20 endorsements to file their candidacy, the votes of 189 LDP legislators — 20 times nine, plus the nine candidates themselves — have already become clear.
With a reduced pool of votes up for grabs, individual preferences of prefectural chapters have become crucial, benefitting Popular candidates such as Ishiba and Koizumi.
Due to the unusually large number of bids, it is unlikely that a single candidate will be able to win the race in the first round. In such a case, the top two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round will face each other in a runoff.
In this scenario, it will be crucial for Ishiba to win the favor of the party’s powerbrokers in backdoor negotiations typical of the LDP’s presidential election, likely in exchange for posts in the government or the party leadership.
Whether Ishiba will be able to mend soured ties with LDP Vice President Taro Aso in the process will be something to watch for.
“I will try to sincerely request each lawmaker for their support,” Ishiba said. “In that sense, it is important for me to understand the main challenges the people in each lawmaker’s constituency face. Otherwise it won’t touch the hearts of the legislators.”
Meanwhile, Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has enjoyed great media coverage and public appeal since he was first elected in 2009. Past administrations have capitalized on his popularity, with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appointing him as environment minister at the age of 38 in 2019.
His relative lack of political experience makes him stand out in a field largely occupied by veterans. But the strong backing of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga might provide him with a much-needed veteran perspective, seen as essential to convince the public that he’s fit to run the country.
“I am not the type of person who can do everything on my own,” Koizumi said Thursday as he pitched his candidacy. “However, I am more determined than anyone to tackle long-standing challenges we face with great speed, putting my full weight and everything I have into ensuring we act in time for the next generation.”
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