Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader, Shigeru Ishiba, was appointed by the Japanese National Diet as Prime Minister of Japan on Monday, 11 November. He now leads Japan’s first minority government in three decades. In the upper house of the Diet, the House of Councillors, the LDP and its ally, Komeito, held a confirmed majority, and Ishiba won in the first round of voting. However, in the lower house, a second round was required, as neither he nor Noda Yoshihiko—another former prime minister and leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)—achieved a majority in the first round.

In the initial round, Ishiba secured 221 votes, while Noda, unable to expand his coalition, remained at 160 votes. Ishiba then won decisively in the second round. This, however, still leaves the LDP-Komeito coalition in a minority due to the election results of 27 October, which reduced the LDP’s seat count and stripped it of a majority. It may be recalled that Ishiba had won the race for the LDP president and immediately dissolved parliament in a move to establish his authority over the LDP and the government . He thought he would be the “breath of fresh air”, which polls for the LDP leadership showed him to be, but that fresh air could not blow away the persistent whiff of scandals in the Japanese polity, which people are fed up of.

As a result, Ishiba won the race for the LDP leadership, but has barely held on to the prime ministership after his party suffered losses in the elections. Normally, such losses would lead to the prime minister resigning as the leader of his party, but since Ishiba had just won the LDP election, he did not quit, and instead is shouldering on the responsibility with limited support.

In the elections, the LDP won only 191 seats, losing 68 compared to the last election. The party was forced to adopt six independents—former LDP candidates disowned by the LDP on ethical grounds. The main opposition, the CDP, which previously held fewer than 100 seats, increased its count by 52, reaching a total of 148. Komeito, which previously had 32 seats, also saw a decline, falling to 24.

It was the role of the other parties that could have determined whether the CDP could form a coalition and overcome the LDP’s minority in parliament, or whether the LDP could secure support from other parties to establish a stable coalition.

The Japan Innovation Party, once the optimists’ favorite, also saw its numbers drop, declining from 43 to 38 seats and failing to expand outside Kansai. The biggest gains were made by the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), which now holds 28 seats and appears poised to wield greater influence.

The surprise package of the election was the DPFP, a center-right opposition party supported by labor unions in the corporate sector, particularly among car manufacturers. It had only seven seats in the previous Diet but now holds 28. The party is credited with effectively using virtual campaigns to secure the support of young people by pursuing policies that would directly impact labor, especially those in arbeito (part-time) jobs. The DPFP is keen on raising the threshold for annual income exempt from tax, from ¥1.03 million (about $6,700) to ¥1.78 million. This is expected to reduce tax collection by nearly ¥7 trillion. However, this proposal was a point of contention, and the ruling parties could not agree with the DPFP, which is why it did not join a coalition with the LDP.

DPFP leader Tamaki Yuichiro, who found himself embroiled in a media controversy, remains unclear about how he can position himself as a kingmaker. Instead, he has chosen to become a partial coalition partner, aiming to influence the LDP and Komeito in order to achieve his party’s agenda.

All these parties were wooed by both sides, with the CDP sensing an opportunity to form a coalition. However, the smaller parties did not align with either side and held out, as the election was seen as a major rebuke to the LDP. Despite having been in power for 65 of the last 70 years, this was the first election since major scandals—such as the Unification Church financing scandal and the political slush fund scandal—emerged, meaning the LDP had to face the people’s wrath.

Ishiba took solace from the fact that, in an Asahi Shimbun poll, 61 per cent of respondents did not believe he should step down following the LDP’s diminished electoral performance. As a result, Ishiba remains as prime minister.

Even Komeito, the LDP’s ally, saw its leader Ishii Keiichi lose his constituency after becoming Komeito president in September. Komeito has now appointed Land Minister Saito Tetsuo as its new leader, but it will remain committed to supporting the LDP in Parliament.

The LDP is aware that various opposition parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party, the DPFP, and the Japanese Communist Party (which holds 8 seats), cannot unite around a common agenda. Therefore, the LDP will remain at the core.

One of the key outcomes of the recent elections is the diminished strength of some parties, aside from the CDP and the DPFP. This has led to leadership questions within these parties, resulting in a leadership churn across nearly all factions represented in the Japanese Diet.

Where policies are concerned, it is now evident that no coalition will secure 310 votes in the Diet, and thus efforts to amend Japan’s constitution will diminish in this Parliament. The LDP, along with the three parties often seen as pro-amendment, no longer have the required majority.

Now, the CDP, the DPP, and the Japan Innovation Party may attempt to build issue-based coalitions with the LDP-Komeito minority government to advance their respective agendas. This will include discussions on the budget, which are usually concluded by December. Disaster relief for affected areas, such as Noto Hanto, will need to be prioritised, meaning the DPFP will face challenges in pursuing its income tax cut proposal. The CDP now chairs the Budget Committee, as well as the Judicial Committee and the Commission on the Constitution , giving it a larger role. Ishiba will need to manage the Diet effectively, given his lack of majority.

The political fundraising scandal and reform are already subjects of discussion between the LDP, CDP, and DPFP to agree on how to proceed. Ishiba was elected as LDP leader on the basis of addressing these issues. A special session may be called to pass laws that limit party funding, and a type of ombudsman to monitor political funding to candidates may be established. These are campaign promises of the DPFP and could potentially be agreed upon.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.