The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) setback in the parliamentary elections on Sunday, October 27, has ushered in a period of political uncertainty in Japan. According to exit polls conducted by public broadcaster NHK, the ruling coalition − the LDP and its junior ally the Komei Party − was unlikely to retain the 259 seats that had given it a comfortable majority − with a threshold of at least 233 seats − in the outgoing assembly. It is paying for its inability to respond to Japanese concerns about living standards and the disapproval linked to the LDP’s slush fund scandal that was exposed in 2023.

“I am aware that we have been judged very harshly. We must humbly and solemnly accept this,” said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, adding that he was ready to seek new coalition partners. “The election results stem from the mounting criticism that we still haven’t settled the question of money in politics,” said the LDP’s head of political affairs, Shinjiro Koizumi, shortly after the announcement of the early returns, which gave his party between 153 and 219 elected members.

“We have made progress. We still hope to defeat the LDP and the Komei Party,” said Yoshihiko Noda, president of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the main opposition group, which could win between 128 and 191 seats. It had 96 seats in the outgoing assembly.

The trend has pointed to Ishiba’s weakening grip on power and may even raise questions as to whether he will remain in office. Elected head of the LDP on September 27, and successor to Fumio Kishida as head of government four days later, the former defense minister immediately called a snap election, hoping to benefit from a grace period to consolidate his power. He promised “a new Japan” through stronger defense, increased support for low-income households and revitalized rural areas. But his popularity rating, at 28% in mid-October, a low level for a new head of government, quickly scuttled his chances of victory.

Adverse electoral reforms

Ishiba had been criticized since his election for backing down − under pressure from the conservative fringe of the LDP, which is hostile to him − on several issues, such as the choice for a married couple not to bear the same surname and higher taxation of capital gains.

He also dithered over the fate of the LDP members sanctioned by the party for their involvement in the slush fund scandal, the revelation of which tanked Kishida’s popularity ratings and prompted his decision not to run for re-election. Some of these elected members, such as former minister Koichi Hagiuda, chose to run as independents. The center-left daily Asahi reported that the party had nevertheless granted them campaign funds.

You have 50.91% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.