Fantasy football rankings Week 9: Sleepers, projections, starts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Downs and more

Fantasy football rankings Week 9: Sleepers, projections, starts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Downs and more


Before you dive into the Week 9 fantasy football rankings, remember, I always have some fun ranks! This can be anything from cartoons to players from the 80s to things not to do when you’re over 30 — feel free to suggest yours. And, I try to answer as many comments as humanly possible… however… if it’s a simple WDIS within a position or “Who should I trade for?” type question, those are 99% covered with the ranks and link to the trade charts. Let’s duckin’ go!


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Week 9 Waiver Wire
Week 9 SOS Ranks
Fantasy 101 (weather, start/sit, trading, more)
🎙️All in Fantasy Podcast🎙️


WEEK 9 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

BYES: PIT, SF

Texans at Jets, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

  • The Texans are down to Tank Dell and a trio of Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie and Robert Woods rotating behind him.
  • The Jets have given up the ninth-most completions of 20+ yards, so Dell is a near must-start, but it comes at a risk if the Jets get to C.J. Stroud consistently and double Dell all game.
  • Week 8 was the first time Breece Hall didn’t have a third-down touch.
  • Garrett Wilson has only seen his TmTGT% drop from 30.6 to 27.0 with Davante Adams, and his YPRR has jumped from 1.62 to 2.60.

Cowboys at Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • Rico Dowdle is the only Cowboys running back with 5.0 yards per touch (next closest is Deuce Vaughn at 3.8) and the only one with a positive EPA — 0.12, with Vaughn second again at -0.37. Maybe we can #FreeRico, and I don’t mean to chuck more steak at Napoleon Dynamite.
  • This might not be a Darnell Mooney game. Of his 37 receptions, 30 came when the defense had seven defenders in coverage, and the Cowboys have dropped seven into coverage third-least among NFL teams (36.8% — Panthers 35.5% and Broncos 36.5%).

Dolphins at Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • In his return, Tua Tagovailoa had just 5.1 AirYD/Attempt and 5.3% of passes being 20+ Air Yards, and he only failed to top that 5.1 mark three times last year (twice versus the Jets). It could be his first game back, but Tagovailoa against the Bills is concerning, and that’s before a potential cautious approach.
  • I’m interested in Keon Coleman keeping his run going, so check the “Sleepers” section.

Raiders at Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • Jakobi Meyers’ TmTGT% since Week 3: 23.1, 41.7, 25.0 and 25.9 (with 17.7, 7.4, 10.2 and 14.2 FPPG).
  • Joe Burrow has been a completely different quarterback with and without Tee Higgins on the field this year. With Higgins: 12.1 YD/Comp and 8.1 TD/Att% compared to 8.9 and 2.6% without.

Chargers at Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • The Browns run the second-most Cover-1 (34.5%), and Ladd McConkey is third in YPRR against Cover-1 (4.35).
  • The Chargers take the longest between plays at 29.7 sec/snap, which helps them allow the fourth-fewest plays per game (57.7), and Chris Olave was only the second wideout to top 78 yards against them (Calvin Austin, in Week 3, was the other).

Patriots at Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • The Patriots have had a different wideout trio atop the route participation each week, though Kayshon Boutte has risen to the top three games in a row. And no wideout averages more than 22.8 YPG with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, with tight end Hunter Henry leading the way at 35.7.
  • Since the Titans bye, only CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson have a higher TmTGT% than Calvin Ridley’s 31.1% mark (38.8, 35.1, 34.7, respectively, for the others), and Ridley’s 39.5% Week 8 mark was the 12th-highest mark this year.

Commanders at Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • The Commanders lead the league in Pressure% rushing only four at 47.1% (Vikings second at 43.7%).
  • The Giants allow the fourth-highest Press% with only four rushers (37.4%), and that number is 45.1% without Andrew Thomas.
  • In the two games since Devin Singletary’s return, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has a 70.5 RBTouch% and 5.9 yards per touch, compared to 22.7% and 4.4, respectively, for Singletary.
  • If Tracy is out, Singletary would be a low-end RB2.

Saints at Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • The Panthers run the most Cover-3 at 50.7%, and Chris Olave is great against it (with or without Derek Carr) with 2.68 YPRR (15th best).
  • Not surprisingly, the Panthers (34.8%) and Jaguars (30.6%) allow the highest and second-highest percentage, respectively, of drives ending in touchdowns.
  • The Panthers average 5.3 YD/Play, 15.6 TD/Drive% and 11.2% Explosive Plays with Andy Dalton compared to 4.1, 3.3% and 5.9% with Bryce Young.

Broncos at Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

  • While having a nice run, Bo Nix is just 31st in TD/Att% while in the pocket (out of 43 qualified).
  • The Ravens have allowed a league-low seven rushes of 10+ yards (Chiefs second with 12).
  • Of Top 20 wideouts, only four have 50% of their games with 9 or fewer points — Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Reed, Darnell Mooney and Zay Flowers. Now the Ravens add Diontae Johnson, and while I don’t expect much in his first game, this is just another inconsistency factor for Flowers.

Jaguars at Eagles, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

  • The Jaguars run the third-most Cover-1 (34.4% — only one of three teams over 29.0%), and A.J. Brown leads the league with 5.52 YPRR against it (Nico Collins second at 4.81).
  • Despite Jalen Hurts running for three touchdowns last week, Saquon Barkley still has the third-most GL rush attempts (9), behind Kyren Williams (11) and Derrick Henry (12).
  • With a 2-4 week timeline and rib issue, I’ll put Brian Thomas in if he practices in full, and he’d be Top 20, but not in the ranks until then.

Bears at Cardinals, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

  • Since Week 4, D’Andre Swift is third in FPPG (21.0), fifth in YPT (6.3, min 50 touches), fourth in RBTouch% (76.6), but 18th in team RB Rush Att% (55.4) in G2G, as Roschon Johnson continues to get opportunities there.
  • Week 8 was just the second time Marvin Harrison Jr. has seen a catchable target percentage over 71.4% (85.7).

Lions at Packers, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

  • Week 8 was only the third game in which Sam LaPorta saw more than 9.1% of the targets (33.3% — 21.1% and 17.9% were the other two).
  • The two leaders in YD/Comp outside the pocket? Jordan Love 29.1 (first) and Malik Willis 19.2 (second).
  • In Weeks 2-3 with Malik Willis, Jayden Reed had eight of the 33 targets — Dontayvion Wicks is second with six. No matter what Love says, don’t see him playing with a bye week next week, but he’d be Top 10 as always if playing, with basement level floor (injury risk).

Rams at Seahawks, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

  • The Rams get the second-highest Press% (54.4) when bringing at least one extra defender, and the Seahawks allow the third-highest Press% in those situations (48.3%)… As mentioned a few weeks ago, Jaxon Smith-Njigba struggles against Cover-3, and the Rams use it the sixth-highest at 43.3%, just behind the Falcons at 46.2% (JSN went 3-for-9 on six targets against Atlanta).

Colts at Vikings, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

  • NOTES: The Colts have passed 61.5% of the time with Joe Flacco compared to 49.7% with Anthony Richardson, and they see a TD/Att boost from 3.0% to 6.4% and EPA/Dropback jump of -0.13 to 0.18… I’m starting T.J. Hockenson in his first game back given the state of the tight end position (unless you have a Top 10 option).
  • Think the Vikings look better with Aaron Jones? You’re not wrong with 6.3 YD/Play, 22.5 TD/Drive% and a 9.3 TD/Att% for Sam Darnold versus 4.8, 6.3% and 4.9%, respectively, without Jones.

Buccaneers at Chiefs, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

  • This will be a real test for Baker Mayfield, especially with the Chiefs having a Top 10 Press% with only four rushers and Top 5 with an extra rusher, but the good news is that Mayfield averages the fifth-quickest time to throw at 2.75 seconds.
  • DeAndre Hopkins ran just 14 routes in his first game, and while that should tick up this week, there is a risk it ends up as a 50-60% participation rate like Amari Cooper in his second game with the Bills.
  • Still, I’ll have Hopkins as a WR3, unless JuJu Smith-Schuster returns. If he does, then Hopkins is riskier as a WR4, only because of the incorporation concern.

WEEK 9 SLEEPERS

QUARTERBACK

  • Patrick Mahomes, KC — How the mighty have fallen… in fantasy. Yes, Mahomes is a “sleeper” because he hasn’t had a QB1 score since Week 12 last year. However, the Chiefs get the Buccaneers’ nearly non-existent defense and the second game with DeAndre Hopkins. This QB1-potential play is with hope that the Buccaneers offense doesn’t wilt against the Chiefs and have the Chiefs run out the clock.
  • Matthew Stafford, LAR — Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are back… all is well… ish. It’s not just having his two top weapons, it’s that the Seahawks’ pass defense is highly vulnerable, with only Kirk Cousins, inexplicably, failing to score 19.5+ points in the past five Seahawks games.

RUNNING BACK

  • Tony Pollard, TEN — Pollard is here if Tyjae Spears returns and anyone hesitates. The Titans will feature Pollard more when they lead, and they should be able to carry a lead against the Patriots, especially if it’s Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Bonus: the Patriots can’t stop the run.
  • Chase Brown, CIN — Interestingly, Brown and Zack Moss have swapped roles with Moss being more the passing-game option, which means we can chase… Chase… with the assumption that the Bengals control this game. Similar to the Pollard setup in many ways, the Raiders also struggle against the run, as the bonus matchup boost.

WIDE RECEIVER

  • Josh Downs, IND — Joe Flacco is back at quarterback, and we already would have boosted Downs. On top of that, the Vikings defense, while tough, has been vulnerable to wideouts of Downs’ ilk.
  • Courtland Sutton, DEN — Speaking of style-related matchups, Sutton types have done particularly well against the Ravens. I have my concerns about Bo Nix in Baltimore, even with the Ravens’ pass defense issues, which is why Sutton is a sleeper gamble and not a must-start.
  • Keon Coleman, BUF — As Amari Cooper integrates more, the Bills trio will be more inconsistent, but Cooper will hurt Khalil Shakir more than Coleman this week, as they look to attack the Dolphins’ perimeter. DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr. and Michael Pittman Jr. were able to shake free quite a bit, so here’s gambling on Coleman to continue his run.

TIGHT END


FUN WITH RANKINGS!

You know the drill. It’s Halloween week, so it’s Halloween candy ranking time! Now, as a reminder, there need to be a Halloween (aka, snack size) version. Thankfully, Nerds rectified this issue a few years back for the undisputed champion of Halloween candy.

Best Halloween Candy Ranked

  1. Nerds Gummy Clusters (best.candy.ever! Especially the berry pack!)
  2. Reese’s Peanut Butter Pumpkins (champ of chocolate candy)
  3. Peanut Butter M&Ms (Plain M&M’s outside Top 10)
  4. Twizzlers Rainbow (regular Twizzlers would be outside the Top 15 — I like the regular version/texture better)
  5. Starburst FaveREDs – If you’re lucky, a strawberry two-pack!
  6. Snickers
  7. Swedish Fish Minis
  8. Sour Patch Watermelon Slices
  9. Haribo Gold Bears (only gummy bears allowed… outside of the Disney ones — and yes, I’ve had Albanese gummy bears and stand by my statement)
  10. Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups
  11. Take 5
  12. Hot Tamales
  13. Junior Mints (they’re very refreshing — York peppermint patties are good, just Junior Mints do it better)
  14. Hi-Chew — Particularly any of the berry flavors
  15. Nestle Crunch
  16. 100 Grand — Great, but I feel like Take 5… takes… it one step higher
  17. Airheads (Strawberry, Watermelon, Mystery)
  18. Twix (something changed a few years back, and it’s not as good)
  19. Laffy Taffy (Strawberry, Watermelon) — I keep pushing these down since the wrappers never come off
  20. Kit Kat — Always causes anger being this low, but you can eat 20 and not even feel the slightest bit of satiation
  21. Sour Patch Kids
  22. Butterfinger (have to be fresh/soft — lost a few spots for new recipe)
  23. Skittles — Mainly this low because check Worst list
  24. Almond Joy — Though, I bite the almond out and trash it — Mounds are good, but this is the one time I prefer dark chocolate (with coconut)
  25. Milky Way — Just Snickers without peanuts, and therefore subpar

Overrated:

  • Whoppers — Even fresh, your parents called and want their candy back.
  • Tootsie Rolls — EVERYONE hands these out, and kids end up with half a bag of them. Enough!
  • 3 Musketeers — Chocolate with bland, fluffy chocolate that nearly disintegrates in your mouth instantly, and not filling at all. Super meh.

Worst Halloween Candy
(ranked worst-worst to less worst)

  1. Necco Wafers — I don’t even know where people find these. Are we sure it’s not street chalk?
  2. Circus Peanuts — I mean… orange-colored Styrofoam anyone?
  3. Good & Plenty — What is the flavor, even?! These are hell in a box
  4. Candy Corn — Obviously, too easy
  5. Bit-O-Honey
  6. Mary Jane
  7. Generic wrapped candy — You know… the black/orange wrappers
  8. Wax anything — Lips, bottles, whatever… how are these even a thing?
  9. Smarties — At least Tootsie Rolls are good for a bit. These are barely better than Neccos and everyone has them! (and yes, I was made aware of the Canadian chocolate version a few years ago and don’t mean those)
  10. Black licorice — If you hand these out, we know your soul matches
  11. Dubble Bubble — Even baseball card gum isn’t this hard… and the taste is gone before you reach the next house.
  12. Spongebob Krabby Patties — Excited at the Spongebob attempt, but these were AWFUL
  13. Sugar Babies — It’s like Milk Duds if only they were sandy and overly sugary and… just bad!
  14. Heath — Ever wanted your chocolate bar filled with rock-hard sugar nonsense? Well, do I have something for you!
  15. Jolly Rancher — Take too long — I want to hit my sugar coma! And they’re teeth-breakers.
  16. Now and Later — Have anyone ever found a fresh one, or were they all made in 1958?
  17. Flavored Tootsie Rolls — You’re trying too hard Tootsie Rolls. You’re lucky to be relevant, so stop being discount bin Starbursts
  18. Skittles that are stale — Unless you enjoy breaking your teeth into pieces
  19. Runts — Are they hard candy? Chewy? Supposed to be like Sweet Tart chews, but worse?
  20. Kisses — The chocolate kind… stop trying to take over every holiday! We get enough of these year-round

WEEK 9 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Projections Download Link — SATURDAY


WEEK 9 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

  • There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to work (or Android people can try a two-finger scroll).
  • ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
  • Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images)



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